Events–WeattendedtheSemiconTaiwan2012eventinTaipeifrom5-7Sepandthefollowingareourkeytakeawaysfromthetechforumsandboothvisits:Smartphoneandmobiledevicesleadthegrowth–AccordingtoSEMIestimates,theoverallsemiconductorindustryisexpectedtogrowmoderatelybylowtomidsingledigit%in2012and6%-7%in2013.Smartphoneisthekeygrowthdrivertotheindustry,followedbytabletPC.MutedPC/NBandtepidconsumerdevicedemandscontinuetooffsetoverallsemiconductorindustrygrowth.Accordingly,inordertocapturetherapidperformancechangeofthesmartphoneandpersonalcomputing,semiconductortechnologymigratesfrom28nmto20nmto16nmFinFET,packageadaptionof3D/2.5DICapproaches,andprocessswitchingtoEUVand450mmplatforms,werethemainthemesofSemiconTaiwan2012.

　　Strong28nmdemandtoextend;20nm/16nmtobeanevenbiggernodethan28nm–TSMCshareditsviewofbuildinganecosystemforinnovation.Continuoustechnologyimprovementthroughinnovationisthekeycatalysttofulfillfuturelifestyletrendsofmobileconvergence,ubiquitousconnectivity,internetofferings,andcloudcomputing.Fastadoptionof28nmisapparentlydrivenbymobileconvergence,expectedtoremainathemeentering2013.Whilewebelievethe28nmrevenueofUS$3.6bn/US$7bnfor2012/2013mentionedbyTSMCintheforumcouldbeoveroptimistic,its28nmrevenuetargetofachieving10-12%of2012totalrevenue(weestimateUS$17bn)iswellmaintained.20nmSOCintroductionatend-2012and16nmFinFETatend-2013areaheadofpeers’schedule.TSMChasfoundthatalotofcustomersarewaitingtouseboth20nmand16nmFinFET,whichimpliesfastadoptionforbothnodes.

　　Stillhighexpectationon3DICor2.5Dsiliconinterposer–TSV(ThroughSiliconVia)for3D-ICor2.5DsiliconinterposerhasbeenathemewidelydiscussedintheSemiconTaiwanTechnologyForumoverthelast8-9years.Sharingtheiroptimismandenthusiasminthestate-of-arttechnology,mostforumpresentersexpectthe3DICor2.5Dsiliconinterposertotake-offrapidlyfrom2013.Wetakealessoptimisticstanceonthetechnologyadoption.WebelievethehighercostofTSVfor3DICor2.5Dinterposerisincontrasttothelow-pricetrendofmostendproducts.HighercostwilllimitTSV’sapplicationstoafewhighASPdevices,suchasFPGA,applicationprocessors,CPUandGPUs.Adoptionof2.5Dsiliconinterposerwillbemuchfasterthan3DICgivenbetterreadinessofthesupplychainandlesscomplexityofchipintegrationandinspection.Foundryispoisedtocreateanincrementalbusinessofthe3D/2.5DTSVusingitsmatured65nmmetalinterconnectioncapacity/capability.OSATislikelytomaintainthebusinessofchipstosubstratepackageandfinaltesting.Themiddle-end-of-linebusinessopportunity(diebondingontoRDL(redistributionlayer)orverticallydiestacking)willbeequallysharedbyfoundryandOSAT,dependingonthereadinessandcosteffectivenessfromeachside.(Moretakeawaysonpage2…)(花旗环球金融)