Sep3-Sep9transactionvolumeandASPOnawowbasis,25of33citieswithdataavailablesawvolumedecrease,withagroupmedianof-13%(vs.+6%fortheweekendedSep2).Onayoybasis,26ofthe30citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof48%(vs.+53%).ComparedwiththeAug2012weeklyaverage,27of33citieswithdataavailablesawvolumedecrease,withagroupmedianof-10%(vs.+9%).Relatively,Tier-2citiesinaggregateretreatedlessthanTier-1/3cities,andPan-Bohai&NorthChinaregionsdroppedlessthanotherregions.IntermsofASP,onawowbasis,9outof12citieswithdataavailableonmedianlevelsawpricesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-2%(vs.+2%);ona3-monthcumulativebasis,8of12citieswithdataavailablesawpricesincrease,withagroupmedianof3.8%fromtheprior3-monthaverage.

　　YtdperformanceAsofendSept9,33citieswithdataavailablesawaverageweeklyvolinSep8%lowerthanAugaveragebut43%higherthan2011average.Ytd,16ofthe26citieswithdataavailableonamedianlevelsawvolumesincreasewithagroupmedianof13%yoy(vs.+13%).IntermsofASP,17outofthe27citiessawpricesdecreaseytd,withagroupmedianof-5%yoy(vs.-5%).

　　InventorylevelsTotalinventoryfor13citieswasup0.6%wow(vs.-0.2%fortheweekendedSep2)andaccordingtothe12-monthrollingGFAsold,averageinventorytake-uptime(forthe13citieswetrack)slightlydecreasedto14.2monthscomparedwith14.3monthsintheweekendedSep2.Among13citieswetrack:(1)inventorydeclinedinGuangzhouandQingdao;(2)inventoryisstableinShenzhen,Xiamen,Dongguan,Ningbo,FuzhouandChangchun;(3)inventoryisstillgrowinginBeijing,Shanghai,Suzhou,NanjingandHangzhou.

　　InvestmentviewOurBuyideas:BCD(CL),Zhongnan(CL),CRL,Longfor,Agile,Greentown,Evergrande,PolyProperty(H),Sunac,Sino-Ocean,Fantasia,Poly(A),Vanke(A),Vanke(B),Gemdale,WorldUnionandLushang.OurSellideas:SZInv,OCT,andCWTC.Downsiderisks:Policymisstepsormacrohardlanding.Upsiderisks:Unexpectedgovernmentpolicyeasing.(高盛高华证券)