【研究报告内容摘要】
China Vanke (200002 CH): contracted sales increased 43% yoy in Jan-May 2013. In May, Vankeachieved contract sales of Rmb14bn, up 32% yoy respectively. As of May, the Company achievedsales of Rmb70bn and GFA of 6mn sq.m., up 43% and 26% yoy respectively.
SUNAC(1918): contracted sales increased 111% yoy in Jan-May 2013. As of May, the Companyachieved contract sales of Rmb18.7bn and GFA of 0.9mn sq.m., at ASP of Rmb21020 per sq.m..
CIFI (0884): contracted sales increased 126% yoy in Jan-May 2013. From Jan to May 2013, theCompany achieved contracted sales and contracted GFA of RMB 5.69 bn and 0.6mn sq.m.,respectively. Contracted ASP was Rmb 9,900 /sq.m. The company achieved 46% of its full year2013 contracted sales target of Rmb 12.5bn.
We prefer leading residential developers with fast asset-turns and sales momentum. Chinaproperty sector is under consistent contraction policies, with accelerating concentration in marketshare and profit. We prefer leading residential developers with mass-residential focus, such asCOLI(0688) and Country Garden(2007), given their clear sales/earnings growth visibility.
COLI(0688):achieved 52% of 2013 sales target as of April, our top pick. In Jan-April 2013, thecompany achieved contract sales of HK$52bn(52% of its 2013 target) and GFA of 3.4mn sqm, withnew land bank of 2.6mn sqm. Maintain “Buy” and 6 month target price of HK$30.5.
Country Garden(2007): achieved 37% of 2013 sales target as of April, our top pick. In Jan-April2013, the company achieved contract sales of Rmb 23bn(37% of its 2013 target) and GFA of 3.4mnsqm, Maintain “Buy” and 6 month target price of HK$5.4.
Contraction policies to continue. Stock price catalyst:mom increase in May and Junecontract sales. In appendix, we list major contraction policies on China Property Sector since 2005.
According to our market research, many China developers will launch the sales of more projects inMay and June, which may be a short term stock price catalyst for China Property Sector.