Mar3-Mar10transactionvolumeandASP
Onawowbasis,18of34citieswithdataavailablesawvolumedecreased,withagroupmedianof-3%(vs.+41%fortheweekendedMar3).Onayoybasis,29ofthe31citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof+62%(vs.+63%).ComparedwiththeFeb2013weeklyaverage,29of34citieswithdataavailablesawvolumeincrease,withagroupmedianof+69%(vs.+18%).Relatively,Tier-1/2citiesinaggregateperformedstrongerthanTier-3cities,andPan-BohaiRim&NorthChinaregionsoutperformedamongtheregions.IntermsofASP,onawowbasis,11citieswithdataavailableonmedianlevelsawpricesstayingflat(vs.+4%);ona3-monthcumulativebasis,9of11citieswithdataavailablesawpricesincrease,withagroupmedianof3.2%fromtheprior3-monthaverage.
Ytdperformance
AsofMar10,35citieswithdataavailablesawaverageweeklyvolinMar70%,51%and21%higherthanFeb,1H12,and2012average,respectively.Ytd,25of26citieswithdataavailableonamedianlevelsawvolumesincreasewithagroupmedianof102%yoy(vs.+127%).IntermsofASP,20outofthe27citiessawpricesincreaseytd,withagroupmedianof8%yoy(vs.+10%).
Inventorylevels
Totalinventoryfor13citieswasdown1.1%wow(vs.-1.8%fortheweekendedMar10).Accordingtothe12-monthrollingGFAsold,averageinventorytake-uptime(forthe13citieswetrack)slightlydeclinedto10.8monthscomparedwith10.9fortheweekendedMar3.Amongthe13cities:1)inventorydeclinedinBeijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Nanjing,Fuzhou,Qingdao,Xiamen,DongguanandNingbo;2)inventoryisstableinShenzhen,SuzhouandChangchun;3)InventoryisstillgrowinginHangzhou.
Investmentview
Buyideas:Vanke(A)(CL),Longfor(CL),Greentown(CL),Vanke(B),Sunac,PolyProperty(H),KWG,Evergrande,CountryGarden,CRL,BCD,CMP(A)andZhongnan.Sellideas:Yanlord,PCRTandSMC.Downsiderisks:Unexpectedharshtighteningfromgovernment.Upsiderisks:Strongerthan-expectedpricerecovery.