【研究报告内容摘要】
Update 2012E-2014E underlying EPS and end-2013E NAV/12-m TPWe are updating our end-2013E NAV/12-month NAV-based target pricesand 2012E-2014E earnings estimates for our China real estate coverage byfactoring in developers’ latest new acquisitions and contracted salesperformance. Our coverage universe recorded about Rmb70bn of newacquisitions since our last sector update (refer to 2013Outlook: Start of avirtuous cycle; raising targets; Vanke A to CL-Buy, dated Dec 4, 2012).Furthermore, developers in our coverage universe reported Decembercontracted sales during the past month, achieving 2012contracted salesand ASP on average 5% and 2% higher than our estimates.
As a result, we revise our 12-month target prices for our coverage universeby -5% to +7% and 2012E-2014E underlying EPS by -10% to +13%.Introducing 2015E underlying EPSWe also introduce our 2015E underlying profit forecasts and we see a 14%yoy increase on the median level for our coverage universe mainly drivenby improvement of underlying margins on the back of 5%-10% priceincrease from now to 2014as assumed in our model.
Still positive on the sector; pullback provides re-entry levels
There are no changes to our investment theses and ratings. We believe thehigh share price volatility among our covered stocks in the past few dayswas driven by profit-taking after strong performance in the previousmonths, and against a backdrop of speculation of further policy tightening.Although share performance could remain volatile in the near term, wethink the pullback offers good re-entry levels as we see limited impact onfundamentals from further tightening. We view sector valuations are stillreasonable and we consider the valuations of our Buy-rated stocks asattractive. Our top picks are: Vanke A, Longfor, and Greentown (all CL-Buy).Key risks
Unexpected harsh policy tightening that could trigger wide-spread declinein property prices.