【研究报告内容摘要】
All the sixteenproperty developersin our statisticspoolannouncedthe November sales results,fifteen of whichgrewrobustly on YoY basis.Year-to-month(Jan-Nov) sales of fourdevelopers exceeded thefull-year target. Nine of them sawMoMASP rebound inNovember. For the upcoming first quarter,atraditional weak sales season, performance is expected to maintain strong due tolow base effect.Amid the cash-flow relieve for developers, they will have less incentive to offer deep discount to lure home buyers. As such,valuationofthe propertysector will be holding up wellat around 5-yr mean PE level of 7.06x.
Strong November: Sixteenproperty developersin our comparable group announcedNovembersales.Except for R&F(2777HK),other fifteen developers registered robust YoY sales growth ranging from 6%to 851%.
Robustcumulative sales:All sixteen developers registered positive YoY growth for the cumulative sales, ranging from 1% to 72%. Six developershave already exceeded budget while other ten locked in 95.0% of full-year target in average.Shimao (813 HK)led with the run-rate at 120.8% while Agile was most behind at 87.3%.
Expecting ASPup 5% in 2013 in top tier cities: Nine property developers saw ASP rebounded on MoMranging from 2.0% to 19.7%.As the property developers have achieved their full-year targetswith diminishingcash flow risk, they are regaining bargaining power againstbuyers. However,forthe current China’sproperty market,we expect government stance is still a dominant factorand we donot expectto see nationwideprice rebound in 2013. For the projects in the core area of topcities,ASP may see 5%YoY increase in light of their scarcity by nature.
Valuation holding up on strong first quarter in 2013: Moving to the first quarternext year,thetraditional weaksales season,sales performance is expected to maintain flourish due to lowbase in 2012as thesector was overshadowed by policy uncertainty during Q1 2012. Giventhe cash-flow relieve for property developersin 2H 12,developers will have less incentive to offer deep discount to lure home buyersin Q1 2013.Property sector outperformed the HangSeng Index by 4.0% in a monthand the PE valuation reverted above5-yr mean levelat 7.06x. We expect the valuation to be holding up well on strong fundamentals.