Oct8-Oct14transactionvolumeandASP
Onawowbasis,30网部门the31citieswithdataavailablesawvolumeincrease,withagroupmedian网部门+310%(vs.-74%fortheweekendedOct7).Onayoybasis,27网部门the29citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedian网部门+55%(vs.-31%).ComparedwiththeSep2012weeklyaverage,23网部门33citieswithdataavailablesawvolumeincrease,withagroupmedian网部门+13%(vs.-73%).Relatively,volumesroseacrosscitiesexceptXiamen,andPan-BohaiRim&NorthChinarecoveredmorethanotherregions.Interms网部门ASP,onawowbasis,6网部门9citieswithdataavailableonmedianlevelsawpriceincreasewow,withagroupmedian网部门4%(vs.flat);ona3-monthcumulativebasis,11citieswithdataavailablesawpricesstayingflatfromtheprior3-monthaverage.
Ytdperformance
As网部门endOct14,35citieswithdataavailablesawaverageweeklyvolinOct25%lowerthanSepaveragebut2%,12%higherthan1H12and2011averagerespectively.Ytd,16网部门the26citieswithdataavailableonamedianlevelsawvolumesincreasedwithagroupmedian网部门16%yoy(vs.+13%).Interms网部门ASP,17out网部门the27citiessawpricesdecreaseytd,withagroupmedian网部门-5%yoy(vs.-5%).
Inventorylevels
Totalinventoryfor13citieswasdown-0.4%wow(vs.-0.3%fortheweekendedOct7)andaccordingtothe12-monthrollingGFAsold,averageinventorytake-uptime(forthe13citieswetrack)slightlydecreasedto14.2monthscomparedwith14.3fortheweekendedOct7.Among13citieswetrack:(1)inventorydeclinedinShanghai,Guangzhou,Nanjing,Fuzhou,Suzhou,HangzhouandXiamen;(2)inventoryisstableinShenzhen,Qingdao,DongguanandChangchun;(3)inventoryisstillgrowinginBeijingandNingbo.
Investmentview
OurBuyideas:BCD(CL),CRL,Longfor,Greentown,Sino-Ocean,PolyProperty(H),Sunac,Evergrande,Fantasia,Agile,Poly(A),Vanke(A),Vanke(B),Zhongnan,Gemdale,WorldUnionandLushang.OurSellideas:SZInv,OCT,andCWTC.Downsiderisks:Policymisstepsormacrohardlanding.
Upsiderisks:Unexpectedgovernmentpolicyeasing.