【研究报告内容摘要】

Some families will be restricted from purchasing homes in Xiamen till end-2017

Xiamen Municipal Bureau of Land Resources and Real Estate Management hasjust announced to re-launch home purchase restrictions (HPRs) in an attemptto curb excessive hikes in the land price and property price in the city. TheHPRs will be effective from 5 Sep 2016 to 31 Dec 2017 (both days inclusive).

Families will be restricted from the purchase of commodity residentialproperties of unit size of 144 sqm or below in the abovementioned periodshould any of the conditions below apply:/1) Families with local hukous who own two or more residential properties;/2) Families without local hukous who already own one or more residentialproperties;

3) Families without local hukous who are unable to provide income tax proofor social security payments for more than one year in any period from twoyears before the date of home purchase.

Xiamen property prices soared 39.6% YoY

As a core Tier-2 city, Xiamen reported 39.6% YoY growth in primarycommodity residential ASP in Jul 2016, only 1.8ppts lower than Shenzhen,according to NBS data. The city also reported 33.2% YoY growth in secondarycommodity residential ASP in the same period, second to Hefei (44.1%) amongall Tier-2 cities. Also, on our analysis, the inventory period of the city hasstayed below 8 months for the fourth straight month.

Authority has tightened credit for home purchase since Jul 2016

Prior to the announcement, Xiamen authority had adopted a number ofmeasures in order to stabilize the property market of the city. These are: 1)adopting stringent home credit policies since 15 Jul 2016; 2) gearing upresidential land supply with a target of 2msqm for primary commodityresidential units in 2016; 3) speeding up construction of affordable housing; 4)enhancing supervision of the property market with increased regulation onprices of commodity residential units; 5) accelerating new starts and salesmomentum to boost supply of commodity residential units.

Land auctions held last Friday reported 141% average premium over initialasking price

In the land auctions held last Friday, six plots assigned for residentialdevelopment were sold at RMB17.2bn in total, with an average A.V. ofRMB33,000 psqm and average premium of 141% over the initial asking price.Sunac (1918.HK), Yuzhou (1628.HK) and Vanke (2202.HK; 000002.SZ) are thelisted developers which had acquired four of these plots. This compares withthe average A.V. of RMB 24,000 psqm and average premium of 175% over theinitial asking price reported for land transactions in Apr-Jun. Nevertheless,among the developers we cover, only Vanke and Longfor (0960.HK) haveslightly more than 2% of GFA exposure in Xiamen and others have even less.Hence, we think the impact on nation-wide developers is insignificant.