It seems fitting that Gabriel Medina could clinch his first -- and Brazil's first -- ASP World Title in Portugal. The contest, the Moche Rip Curl Pro Portugal, is underwritten by his main sponsor, Rip Curl, and should he win it, he can thank the crowd in his native tongue. But for all the home-court advantages he has in his favor, as Medina looks to make history he'll be competing in a tense, high-pressure environment at the penultimate stop on the 2014 ASP World Tour.

Seven surfers still have shots, statistically speaking, at the 2014 ASP World Title, and the scenarios for how the race will ultimately shake out are murky and complicated. The one thing for certain is that Brazil's Medina controls his own destiny. If he wins in Portugal, he claims his first world title. Here's how the title race breaks down:

No pressure, right? Medina has put himself in this enviable position by virtue of his three wins this season backed up by a slew of semifinal and quarterfinal finishes. Slater, his nearest competitor, is over 6,000 points behind him. He needs to finish ahead of Medina in Portugal to stay in the race and then hope that Medina falters further at the Pipeline Masters in Hawaii in December. Fanning, Parkinson and Florence have even longer odds against them. They all need Medina to finish worse than second to stay alive.

While Medina has looked nervous and tentative over the past two contests at Trestles and in France, Slater has failed to make much ground against him. Meanwhile, Florence has come on like gangbusters. He was a count back away from beating Slater in Tahiti, then convincingly took him down at Trestles en route to a second-place finish. Florence dominated in France, winning his first event of the year and putting himself in the title picture for the first time in his career.

Florence's wildly creative surfing combines the power and pop of Dane Reynolds with the instinctual tube riding and rubbery flair of Clay Marzo. He also has a few unorthodox stylistic touches that are uniquely his own. He's been on tour now for three years and his results until recently were uneven. But he appears to have figured out how to consistently make heats. A clash between him and Medina in Portugal or at Pipeline, with title implications, would be incredible viewing.

Peniche, a small fishing town about an hour north of Lisbon, will play host to the event. The main event site in Portugal is at Supertubos, which can be one of the best beach breaks in the world when it's on, or one of the worst when it's not. Conditions over the years have been wildly variable. The long-range forecast shows solid swell arriving this weekend for the beginning of the contest window, but winds could be an issue.

Medina doesn't seem to care whether it's 6 feet and perfect or 2 feet and terrible. He just wants to win and put this to bed. Portuguese and Brazilian fans would love nothing more than to see him hoisting the world title trophy on stage in Peniche.

U.S. and Australian surfers have grown fond of seeing the likes of Slater, Fanning and Parkinson battling for supremacy in epic waves at Pipeline. And they, no doubt, would love to see the race continue beyond the old fishing town of Peniche at the legendary Pipeline, as an early Christmas present.