June16-June22transactionvolumeandASP。
Onawowbasis,33citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesflat,withagroupmedianof+0.6%fortheweekendedJune22(vs.+22%fortheweekendedJune15).Onayoybasis,27outof32citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-26%(vs.+9%).ComparedwiththeMay2014weeklyaverage,20of33citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof+4%(vs.+12%),andwithagroupmedianof+2%forthethreeweeksofJune.Inrelativeterms,Tier1citiesoutperformedTier2/3citiesandtheCentral&WesternRegionoutperformedamongtheotherregions.IntermsofASP,onawowbasis,10citieswithdataavailablesawpricesflat,withagroupmedianof+0.8%(vs.+5%).Ona3-monthcumulativebasis,6outof10citieswithdataavailablesawpricesdecreasewithagroupmedianof-3%comparedwiththeprior3-monthaverage.
YTDperformance。
Asofend-June22,35citieswithdataavailablesawaverageweeklyvolumes5%/22%/16%lowerthantheMay2014/full-year2013/1H13averages.22of25citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesdecreaseytd,withagroupmedianof27%yoy(vs.-20%fortheweekendedJune15).IntermsofASP,19outofthe26citieswithdataavailablesawpricesincreaseytd,withagroupmedianof+5%yoy(vs.+5%).
Inventorylevels
Totalinventoryforthe12citieswetrackincreasedby1%wowfortheweekendedJune22(vs.+1%fortheweekendedJune15).Basedonthe12-monthrollingGFAsold,averageinventorytake-uptimeincreasedto17.3months(vs.17.0months).Amongthe12cities:1)inventorywasstableinQingdao,Hangzhou,Dongguan,Fuzhou,Xiamen,Guangzhou,ShenzhenandNingbo;2)inventoryincreasedinShanghai,Beijing,NanjingandSuzhou.
Investmentview。
Buyideas:CG(onCL),Vanke-A(onCL),E-House,Sunac,CRL,Shimao,COGO,CMP-A,Poly-A,Longfor,Leju,Vanke-B.Sellideas:Gemdale,Yanlord,ShuiOnLand.Keyrisks:substantialimprovement/deteriorationindevelopers’balancesheets;better/worsemacroconditions/policyloosening.