【研究报告内容摘要】
Event。
Country Garden (2007 HK, HK$3.75, Outperform, TP: HK$5.10) recordedsoft sales at Rmb6.5bn in March, which were down 15% MoM and up 9% YoY.
Despite this, the company still achieved 24.9% of its Rmb128bn target in thefirst quarter, which remains one of the highest amongst its peers. OnTuesday, the company announced to appoint Mr Wu Jianbin as the new CFO,two weeks after Estella Ng tendered her resignation. Mr Wu formerly held aposition of Executive Director and Vice President in China Overseas HoldingLtd. We believe a quick replacement could help ease investors’ concern onmanagement change. Guangzhou R&F (2777 HK, HK$11.48, Outperform,TP: HK$16.23) posted strong sales of Rmb9.1bn in March, up 208% MoMand 166% YoY. Guangzhou was the largest contributor, fetching Rmb5.2bnsales, mainly from the Yingyao office. YTD sales increased by 71% YoY toRmb15.2bn, representing 21.7% of its sales target, and making its aggressiveRmb70bn goal (+66% YoY) more achievable now.
Kaisa Group (1638 HK, HK$2.73, Outperform, TP: HK$4.92) achievedRmb1.8bn sales in March, up 81% MoM and 1% YoY. 1Q14 sales amountedto Rmb4.1bn (down 14% YoY), representing 13.7% of its Rmb30bn target.
Kaisa continued to maintain its leading position in Shenzhen, ranking the firstboth in GFA sold and the number of units sold in 1Q14, according the CREIS.
Vanke (Not rated) reported moderate sales in March at Rmb14.4bn, up 19%MoM but down 5% YoY. 1Q14 sales increased by 24% YoY to Rmb54.2bn.
ASP in 1Q14 was Rmb13,065/sqm vs Rmb11,750/sqm in 1Q13 and higherthan 2013 average of Rmb11,457/sqm.
Property price growth in 100 cities continued to slow down on both aMoM and YoY basis. In Mar14, prices in 100 cities increased by 0.38% MoMto Rmb7,275/sqm, vs a slower growth from 0.6% MoM in Feb14. Propertyprices in the top-10 cities including Beijing and Shanghai averagedRmb19,563/sqm, up 0.7% MoM or 16.4% YoY. We continue to expectnational property growth to slow down further. However, property price growthin T1 and key T2 cities will likely remain resilient and outperform growth inlower tier cities. Separately, Shanghai Securities Journal quoted aconversation with a senior industry professionals that the local governmentsin several T2/3 cities including Hangzhou and Changsha are discussingthe possibility of selectively relaxing Home Purchase Restrictions. Thismay suggest policymakers are blowing more warm air to the property market.
Outlook。
Five developers have reported sales for March. Their total sales increased by35% MoM and 1Q14 sales also grew 40% YoY. We believe policy will biastowards relaxation in the upcoming months after the last six months of tightcredit. In light of increased hard landing risk, the property sector once againwill likely take a key role in stabilizing the economy. We reiterate ourOverweight stance on the sector. Our top picks are China Overseas Land(688 HK, HK$20.75, Outperform, TP: HK$27.45), Shimao Property (813 HK,HK$17.80, Outperform, TP: HK$30.32) and Kaisa Group (1638 HK, HK$2.73,Outperform, TP: HK$4.92).