Propertysalesvolumeup5%yoy,ASPup4%yoyinDec2013。
NationalcommoditypropertytransactionvolumeinDeccameinatGFAsoldof197mnsqm(+1%yoy/+33%mom).ASPwasRmb5,815/sqm(+4%yoy/-1%mom),resultinginDecpropertysalesofRmb1,148bn(+5%yoy/+32%mom).Amongregions,Decvol.inEastern,Central,andWesternChinawere+3%,-2%,and+0%yoy,respectively.2013volumestoodatGFA1,306mnsqm,+17%yoy(vs.+21%inJan-Nov)andASPreachedRmb6,237/sqm,+8%yoy.Asaresult,2013propertysalesofRmb8,143bnwereup26%yoy.
PropertyinvestmentandnewstartsgrowthstaysolidinDec2013。
NationalpropertyinvestmenttotaledRmb860bninDec,-1%mom/+22%yoy(vs.+15%/+22%inNov).Newstartswere-19%mom/+35%yoyto202mnsqm(vs.+118%/+59%inNov).2013propertyinvestment,GFAnewlystarted,GFAcompleted,andGFAunderdevelopmentwere+19.8%,+13.5%,+2.0%,and+16.1%yoy,respectively.
Decemberlandsalesupfurther,butlandpricepremiumnarrowedOurmonitoringof302cities’totallandmarketactivitiesindicatesthat2013landGFA/revenuetransactedwere2,649mnsqm/Rmb3,173bn(+31%/+62%yoy).Revenuewas+59%momand+20%yoyinDec(vs.-3%/+42%mom/yoyinNov),withanaveragepriceofRmb1,173/sqm.Thepremiumratenarrowedto13%(vs.18%inNov).Intermsofproperty-relatedlandmarketactivities,Declandsalesrevenuewas+53%mom/+21%yoy.。
Decembersalesreportedbydeveloperssawasequentialdrop17developersunderourcoveragewithavailableDecsalesdata:Totalvolume(-24%mom/+4%yoy),sales(-11%mom/+9%yoy),andASP(+17%mom/+5%yoy).
Ourinvestmentview。
Wepreferrealestateagentsoverdevelopersasagentsaremorelikelytooutperformdevelopersduringaslowdownphase,asseeninpastcycles.Buyideas:E-House(CL),Greentown(CL),CML,CountryGarden,Longfor,CRL,Shimao,Vanke(B),Vanke(A),Poly(A),WorldUnion,andCMP(A).Sellideas:Yanlord,PCRT,andSOL.Keydownsiderisks:Developers’balancesheetsdeterioratesubstantially.Keyupsiderisks:Better-thanexpectedeconomicconditionsandpolicyloosening.