Jan13-Jan19transactionvolumeandASP。
Onawowbasis,35citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesflat,withagroupmedianof-0.4%(vs.+5%fortheweekendedJan12).Onayoybasis,23of34citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-14%(vs.-17%).ComparedwiththeDec2013weeklyaverage,30of35citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-23%(vs.-21%).Inrelativeterms,Tier1citiesunderperformedTier2/3cities,andCentral&WesternChinaoutperformedamongtheregions.IntermsofASP,onawowbasis7of11citieswithdataavailablesawpricesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-2%(vs.-5%).Ona3-monthcumulativebasis,7of11citieswithdataavailablesawpricesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-2.4%vs.theprior3-monthaverage.
YTDperformance:AsofendJan19,35citieswithdataavailablesawaverageweeklyvolumes-15%/-5%/+2%vs.theDec2013/2013full-year/1H13averages.Ytd,21of34citieswithdataavailableonamedianlevelsawvolumesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-11%yoy(vs.-6%).IntermsofASP,9outofthe12citiessawpricesincreaseytd,withagroupmedianof+6%yoy(vs.+10%).
Inventorylevels:Totalinventoryfor13citiesincreased0.8%wow(vs.flatfortheweekendedJan12).Accordingtothe12-monthrollingGFAsold,averageinventorytake-uptime(forthe13citieswetrack)wasupto12.6comparedwiththeweekofJan12(vs.flatat12.2).Amongthe13cities:1)inventoryisstableinBeijing,Changchun,Shanghai,Suzhou,Ningbo,Guangzhou,Qingdao,Nanjing,Hangzhou,Shenzhen,Xiamen;;2)inventoryincreasedinFuzhou,Dongguan.
Investmentview:Buyideas:E-House(onCL),Greentown(onCL),CML,CountryGarden,Longfor,CRL,Shimao,Vanke(B),Vanke(A),Poly(A),WorldUnion,andCMP(A).Sellideas:Yanlord,PCRTandShuiOnLand.Keydownsiderisks:developers’balancesheetsdeterioratesubstantially.Keyupsiderisks:better-than-expectedeconomicconditions/policyloosening.