Dec9-Dec15transactionvolumeandASP
Onawowbasis,20of35citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof+5%(vs.-12%fortheweekendedDec8).Onayoybasis,18of33citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof+3%(vs.-7%).ComparedwiththeNov2013weeklyaverage,25of35citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-11%(vs.-7%).Inrelativeterms,Tier1citiesoutperformedTier2/3cities,andSouthernChinaoutperformedamongtheregions.IntermsofASP,onawowbasis,6of11citieswithdataavailablesawpricesincrease,withagroupmedianof0%(vs.-3%).Ona3-monthcumulativebasis,7of11citieswithdataavailablesawpricesincrease,withagroupmedianof+2.1%vs.theprior3-monthaverage.
YTDperformance
AsofendDec15,35citieswithdataavailablesawaverageweeklyvolumes-11%/+15%/-2%vs.theNov2013/2012fullyear/2H12averages.Ytd,18of26citieswithdataavailableonamedianlevelsawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof+16%yoy(vs.+14%).IntermsofASP,25outofthe27citiessawpricesincreaseytd,withagroupmedianof+9%yoy(vs.+7%).
Inventorylevels
Totalinventoryfor13citieswasup0.6%wow(samefortheweekendedDec8).Accordingtothe12-monthrollingGFAsold,averageinventorytake-uptime(forthe13citieswetrack)increasedto11.7comparedwith11.5fortheweekofDec8.Amongthe13cities:1)inventorydeclinedinNanjing,Shenzhen;2)inventoryisstableinShanghai,Changchun,Xiamen,Hangzhou,Dongguan,Qingdao;and3)inventoryincreasedinBeijing,Suzhou,Ningbo,Guangzhou,Fuzhou.
Investmentview
Buyideas:E-House(onCL),Greentown(onCL),CML,CountryGarden,Longfor,CRL,Shimao,Vanke(B),Vanke(A),Poly(A),WorldUnion,andCMP(A).Sellideas:Yanlord,PCRT,andShuiOnLand.Keydownsiderisk:Developers’balancesheetsdeterioratesubstantially.Keyupsiderisks:Better-than-expectedeconomicconditions/policyloosening.