SlowersalesinOctasunitslauncheddeclined.Singaporedeveloperslaunched1,124privatehomes(excludingECs)inOct,andsold1,009units(-19%MoM).Cumulativehomessalesfor10M13was13,675units,whichwas32%lowerthanthesameperiodlastyear.ThenumberofECunitssoldinOctwasanall-yearlowof99unitsintheabsenceofanylaunch.
Demandremainedprojectspecific.Thebest-sellingprojectofthemonthwas396-unitTheInfloraatFloraDrive,where388unitsweresnappedupduringthelaunchmonthduetoitsrelativelyattractivepricing(medianASPSGD952psf).ChipEngSeng’s186-unitNineResidencesatYishunRingRoadwasadistantsecond,with96unitssold(medianASPSGD1,107psf),whileCDL’s266-unitTheVenueResidencesonlymanagedtosell39unitsfromthe50launched(medianASPSGD1,457).CapitaLandreleasedtheremaining215unitsatD’Leedon,andsold26atamedianpriceofSGD1,542psf.
TemporaryhiatusforEClaunchesinOct.The99ECunitssoldinOctcamemainlyfromForestville(34units;medianASPSGD721psf),LushAcres(30units;medianASPSGD815psf)andSeaHorizon(20units;medianASPSGD805psf).ThisisexpectedtochangeinNov,aftertherecentlylaunched506-unitSkyparkResidencesatSembawangwasreportedlyoversubscribedbythreetimes,withunitspricedatSGD750-820psf.
Notexpectinganyyear-endsalesramp-up.Webelievethedemandfornon-ECprojectswillcontinuetoremainlacklusterfortherestoftheyear.SingLandrecentlylaunched200unitsatapreviewofits429-unitAlexResidencesnearRedhillMRTandreportedlysold~150unitsatanASPofSGD1,650psf.Thiswas~6%lowerthanwhatTheEchelonnextdoorachievedwhenitwaslaunchedinDeclastyear.M+SLtd(JVbetweenKhazanahandTemasek)justlaunchedits660-unitDUOResidencesandoverhalfoftheunitshavebeenreportedlytakenup,withtheaveragepricingaroundSGD1,800-2,000psf.Overall,full-yearsalesremainontracktomeetourexpectationof15-16kunits.
Residentialdownsiderisksremain,buyCMAinstead.ThelaunchpricesofAlexResidencesandThomsonThreeinSepsuggestthatdevelopersaremorewillingtolowertheirmarginexpectationstomoveunits.Inaddition,fallingCOVsofHDBresaleflats,worriesofQEtaperingandtherecordnumberofphysicalcompletionsoverthenextthreeyearswillcontinuetoweighnegativelyontheresidentialprices.
WereiterateCapitaMallsAsia(CMASP;TPSGD2.56)asourtoppickamongSingaporedevelopersforitsretailmallexposure.