Oct7-Oct13transactionvolumeandASP
Onawowbasis,32of34citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof107%(vs.-57%fortheweekendedOct6).Onayoybasis,18of34citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof+3%(vs.+105%).ComparedwiththeSep2013weeklyaverage,24of35citieswithdataavailablesawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof+9%(vs.-43%).Inrelativeterms,Tier1citiesperformedbetterthanTier2/3cities,andPan-BohaiRimandNorthChinaoutperformedamongtheregions.
IntermsofASP,onawowbasis9of11citieswithdataavailablesawpricesdecrease,withagroupmedianof-5%(vs.+12%).Ona3-monthcumulativebasis,7of11citieswithdataavailablesawpricesincrease,withagroupmedianof+0.6%vs.theprior3-monthaverage.
YTDperformance
AsofendOct13,35citieswithdataavailablesawaverageweeklyvolumesinOct-12%/+8%/-9%vs.theSep2013/2012full-year/2H12averages.Ytd,20of26citieswithdataavailableonamedianlevelsawvolumesincrease,withagroupmedianof+14%yoy(vs.+14%).IntermsofASP,25outofthe27citiessawpricesincreaseytd,withagroupmedianof+6%yoy(vs.
+6%).
Inventorylevels
Totalinventoryfor13citieswasdown0.3%wow(vs.-0.1%fortheweekendedOct6).Accordingtothe12-monthrollingGFAsold,averageinventorytake-uptime(forthe13citieswetrack)increasedslightlyto11monthscomparedwith10.9fortheweekendedOct6.Amongthe13cities:1)inventorydeclinedinSuzhou,Xiamen,Beijing,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Shanghai,andNanjing;2)inventoryisstableinChangchun,Ningbo,andDongguan;3)inventoryincreasedinQingdao,Hangzhou,andFuzhou.
Investmentview
Buyideas:Longfor(onCL),Greentown(onCL),R&F,KWG,Shimao,CRL,CountryGarden,Evergrande,Vanke(B),Vanke(A),Poly(A),Gemdale,andCMP(A).Sellideas:Yanlord,PCRT,andRisesun.Keydownsiderisks:unexpectedpolicytightening/macrohardlanding.Keyupsiderisks:Betterthan-expectedeconomicconditions/policyloosening.